(There are conflicting reports on if hats still drop or not. Let me know!)


Now, to start us off, we use a very similar equation to one used in another guide, "An Unusual Math Problem"

Now, here is our equation.
(credit to, An Unusual Math Problem, but our equations are the same, as they calculate the same thing)

now, there with y being your chance of finding a hat in a drop, c being the chance of finding a hat in a hat drop, 0.0147(1.47%), and n being the number of drops (12 per week). DISCLAIMER:Now, be weary, the hat drop percent is not entirely accurate, we don't know the exact number. It fluctuates, and this chance is also lower for Free To Play TF2ers. This just hopefully gives you a nice rough estimate.

Well, with every drop being at around 70-90 minutes, sometimes lower, at 12 drops a week, that is at minimum 840 minutes of all 12 drops, with that a 16.3% chance of getting a hat.

So, you may be like, "THEN WHY DON'T I HAVE MUH HAT? I'VE PLAYED FOR 50 WEEKS AND THAT SHOULD BE WELL OVER 100%!!!!!"

No, it isn't. You need a good ~1450 drops to get enough .999999s on a calculator for it to round to one, and sometimes not even that. So, by a good 1450 drops you should have hat. So, that's a good 101500 minutes AT MINIMUM. At average, it'd be about 116000 minutes. So, in hours, that'd be 1691 hours 40 minutes and 1933 hours and 20 minutes respectively. So, you really don't deserve a hat for your 1000 hours of playing. Now, obviously, by a good ~300 drops you'd be in the high 90s of percents of being able to get a hat, but it still isn't completely guarenteed. Here, it's a nice picture to show you some stuff. You'll see it approaches 1, but obviously never touches, but yes you should actually have a hat by atleast 300 drops, but don't count on it. And also, do realize, you get 12 drops a week, and this equation doesn't even count that into it. So, it actually takes a bit longer, so don't be surprised.



^^^^^
fancy graph

You should be expecting to have a hat at around 300 drops, but you don't get extremely close enough to 100% until around 1450 drops. And even then, it's not completely guarenteed, you could just be extremely unlucky. But do realize, everytime you get a hat, you'd be restarting this graph at 0.

Have a nice day, and hopefully many hats come your way!